March 2026 | Q1 Edition
PEAK Global Capital
Private & Public Capital Intelligence | March 2026
Capital intelligence for developers, contractors, lenders, and sophisticated operators.
Six categories. Real market data. No terminal required.
peakglobalcapital.com | Private & Public Capital Intelligence | [email protected] | Private Credit: Where the Opportunity Is Right Now
BENCHMARK RATES | As of March 2026
Key driver: Fed pause on rates with data-dependent approach. Markets pricing modest cuts later in 2026 but with significant uncertainty. 10-year Treasury drift higher is the dominant force across all private market pricing.
CATEGORY 1 | Working Capital & Short-Term Credit
Key drivers: SMB delinquencies staying elevated; tighter bank lines pushing more demand into MCA and alternative channels. Fintech originators repricing risk after 2025 loss experience. Ample private credit liquidity keeping ABL spreads stable.
CATEGORY 2 | Private Credit | Bridge / Construction / Mezz
Key drivers: Refinancing risk from 2021-2022 vintages; valuation uncertainty in office pushing spreads 25-50 bps wider. Industrial still tighter. Banks holding exposure limits; non-bank lenders filling gaps at premium pricing. Construction cost volatility and lease-up risk driving construction loan conservatism.
📖 Further Reading: Private Credit: Where the Opportunity Is Right Now
CATEGORY 3 | Public Finance | Muni / Districts / CPACE
Land-Secured & Special Districts
Muni Bonds by Rating
Key drivers: Housing cycle pace and absorption risk in new subdivisions. 10-year Treasury drift higher flowing through to all muni pricing. Investor appetite for project-based land-secured paper remains selective. ESG/green appetite supporting CPACE. Recent Sunbelt negotiated deals printing 3.5-4.5% on 10-yr maturities.
CATEGORY 4 | Project Finance | Hospitality / Mixed-Use / Industrial
Key drivers: RevPAR expectations and exit cap rate uncertainty driving hospitality premium. Industrial fundamentals remain strongest in CRE; persistent logistics demand keeping spreads inside other sectors. Duration risk on ground leases following 10-year Treasury move. Stadium/arena blended coupons in 6-8% zone depending on tax-exempt vs taxable tranches.
CATEGORY 5 | Tax Credits & Specialized Structures
Key drivers: Bank appetite and CRA exam pressures supporting LIHTC pricing in strong metro areas. Bonus depreciation schedule shaping cost seg benefit profile. More specialty firms competing for R&D credit claims. NMTC driven by allocation availability and competition for high-impact projects.
CATEGORY 6 | Capital Markets | Forward Signals
Bottom line: The Fed pause creates a stable-but-elevated rate environment. Private credit remains well-capitalized and filling gaps left by cautious banks. The opportunity for sophisticated capital advisors lies in the blend — combining cheap public financing layers with private credit to optimize total cost of capital below what any single source can offer.
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Disclaimer
This rate sheet is published monthly by PEAK Global Capital as part of the Private & Public Capital Intelligence series published by PEAK Global Capital. Rates reflect market conditions as of publication date, are sourced from publicly available transaction data and market intelligence, and are subject to change without notice.
This publication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a commitment to lend, an offer of securities, or investment advice. PEAK Global Capital is a capital advisory firm and does not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice.